Oil, Iran, and the recession question

Recession calls are growing as the oil market sees no end in sight to Iran-war disruptions

The author's frequent meditation spot, overlooking Brooklyn and Manhattan.Courtesy of Zachary Fox PhotographyRecession calls are growing louder as observers gauge the impact of the US-Iran war.Oil prices have stuck close to $100 a barrel this week and could remain elevated.Markets are worried the spike could lead to a consumer-led economic slowdown. It's becoming harder to ignore the risk of a recession as the Iran war causes historic disruption…

Oil, Iran, and the recession question

Range reports that while oil shocks can impact recessions, current economic indicators suggest we aren’t on that path yet.

Are We in a Recession? Here's What the Economist Behind the Most Accurate Indicator in History Says

The economic news this week has been moving fast. Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, driven by the US-Israel war with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and seaborne gas, has been all but closed for over a week. Three vessels were struck by unknown projectiles there just yesterday. Stock markets in the US, UK, and Europe are falling sharply. And the word “recession” …