Odds that a proposed billionaire tax appears on California ballots plunge on prediction markets
The union says the levy would affect about 200 Californians with $2 trillion in combined wealth as Newsom weighs opposition before a June 25 deadline.
- Prediction markets platform Kalshi shows chances of a proposed California billionaire tax appearing on the November ballot dropped from 88% to 35.5% over the last week. The initiative seeks a one-time 5% tax on residents with assets exceeding $1 billion.
- California Governor Gavin Newsom is lobbying to block the measure before the June 25 deadline as he considers a presidential run, fearing the initiative would hinder state innovation. Reports from Politico and Bloomberg News detail his push to stop the proposal.
- Google co-founder Sergey Brin is spending $57 million to defeat the proposal, while the SEIU-UHW union submitted over 1.5 million signatures to qualify it for the ballot. Brin's spending represents less than 0.1% of his 2025 earnings.
- The California Teachers Association and Planned Parenthood Affiliates have publicly opposed the measure, citing concerns it lacks sustainable funding for schools and communities. Rep. Ro Khanna and the California Democratic Socialists continue backing the initiative.
- If passed, the tax would affect approximately 200 Californians possessing $2 trillion in combined wealth. Opponents warn the move could drive billionaires from the Golden State, potentially reducing long-term tax revenue.
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Gavin Newsom vowed to stop California's billionaire tax. He has days left to keep it off the ballot.
Gov. Gavin Newsom said he would fight the proposed billionaire tax.Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty ImagesGov. Gavin Newsom said he was fighting a proposed California tax on billionaires.The deadline for the measure to appear on the ballot is coming up next week.If the measure appears on the ballot, California voters will decide on it in November.Gov. Gavin Newsom's fight to stop a proposed tax on billionaires in California is coming down to the …
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Google co-founder Sergey Brin is spending $57 million to defeat a proposed billionaire tax in California. “I fled socialism with my family in 1979 and know the devastating, oppressive society it created in the Soviet Union,” he explained. “I don’t want California to end up in the same place.” Months before it collapsed, my family […]
STOCK MARKET: California billionaire tax: Prediction markets show slide in ballot measure odds
California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks during the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, Germany, February 13, 2026. Liesa Johannssen | Reuters Chances that a proposed billionaire tax will appear on California’s ballot dropped from 88% to 35.5% over the last week on prediction markets platform Kalshi. The plunge arrives on the heels of reports from Politico and Bloomberg News that Gov. Gavin Newsom is pushing to stop the proposed tax from …
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