NOAA Says El Niño Could Become Strongest Since 1950
NOAA puts the odds of a very strong El Niño above 90%, with forecasters expecting milder weather across much of the country.
- On Wednesday, The Weather Network released its national fall outlook, predicting a mild, extended autumn across most of Canada as a potentially historic El Nino delays winter's arrival.
- El Nino, the climate phenomenon tied to shifting patches of warm water in the Pacific Ocean, is the main driver of this forecast; it shifts storm tracks south and fills Canada with milder air while limiting cold Arctic air movement.
- Average fall temperatures remain about 2.4 degrees warmer across Canada compared to the mid-20th century due to climate change, while British Columbia faces warmer, drier conditions offering little relief to wildfire-weary communities through October.
- Senior meteorologist Doug Gillham warned that fewer storms do not guarantee reduced impact, cautioning "Fewer storms doesn't mean that the storms that occur won't pack a punch." Winter delay is not a concern this year.
- Canada is warming nearly twice as fast as the global average, with Nunavut's winters potentially warming more than 10 degrees Celsius by century's end, though Gillham noted it is "not all doom and gloom for the fall in Canada" despite El Nino raising risks of serious floods and drought into 2027.
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After a record summer the autumn took some time with its arrival, but now the weather is to change. But can September tell us something about the winter and even about Christmas now?
Temperatures above average and a delayed winter are forecast.
Forecast suggests winter to wait as El Nino extends fall
It’s shaping up to be a mild fall across much of Canada, The Weather Network’s forecast suggests, with a potentially historic El Nino expected to prolong the season and delay winter’s arrival. September and October will still bring the usual swings between warm spells and bursts of chilly, stormy weather, the network’s three-month outlook says. […]
Although the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts a high-intensity El Niño phenomenon that will have consequences throughout North America, the Meteorological Media forecasts do not report an extreme autumn in the eastern part of the country.
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