Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop among top ministers who could lose their seats as election overhang possible

Hanging in the balance: Hutt South, Mt Albert and a potential overhang

A poll of polls projects an overhang that could cost Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith and Gerry Brownlee their seats, but Winston Peters declines to go all-in on vote-splitting, writes Henry Oliver in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. With five weeks until election day, the overhang is hanging over much of the election conversation. And according to a Poll of Polls from Stuf…

Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop among top ministers who could lose their seats as election overhang possible

New Zealand’s electoral system has usually guaranteed jobs for high-ranking list MPs in the big parties. That may no longer be the case.

"Two Ticks Blue" could cost the right: Analysis warns of a National overhang trap in the 2026 Election

Centre-right voters could unintentionally waste their votes on 7 November, according to a number of political commentators. The warning rests on a rare MMP quirk that the 2026 polls have exposed: a possible large overhang for a major party. Across all six major pollsters, National has polled between 27 and 32 percent in every poll […]