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'At the Early Stages of a Recovery': Reserve Bank Keeps OCR on Hold

New governor Anna Breman prioritizes inflation control while supporting fragile recovery; 75% of surveyed clients expect one rate hike by year-end, Westpac said.

  • Reserve Bank governor Anna Breman chaired her debut meeting on Feb 18 and kept the official cash rate at 2.25%, with forecasts pointing to a rise early next year.
  • Balancing inflation control with recovery support guided the decision as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the OCR on hold to address 3.1% inflation last year amid weak unemployment.
  • Survey data and swap-rate moves signalled market bets on hikes as a Westpac survey showed 75% expected one hike to 2.5% this year, with two-year swap rates rising and the Kiwi dollar falling from US60.45c to US60.15c.
  • Borrowers face immediate consequences as guidance points to eventual tightening; mortgage-holders were disappointed, though lower retail interest rates have eased household budgets after nine of the previous 10 meetings were cuts.
  • The MPC projects inflation will return to midpoint within a year, but analysts remain split with some expecting hikes this year and others forecasting 2027, as ASB sees a gradual path to a 3.25% peak.
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  • 67% of the sources are Center
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WTVB broke the news in on Tuesday, February 17, 2026.
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