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UK food inflation heading towards 10% due to Iran war, industry says

The trade body said energy-market disruption is lifting production, transport and packaging costs for 12,000 manufacturers.

  • The Food and Drink Federation warned Wednesday that food inflation will reach at least 9% by the end of 2026, tripling its previous forecast of 3.2% due to the Iran war.
  • Conflict in the Middle East has closed the Strait of Hormuz and damaged energy infrastructure, driving up production costs for manufacturers already facing mounting transport and packaging expenses.
  • Diesel costs for farm machinery have surged 80% since the war began, while average British household food bills could rise by around £588 annually under the new forecast.
  • Chancellor Rachel Reeves is meeting supermarket chiefs from Sainsbury and Tesco on Wednesday to assess the impact of these price rises on the cost of living.
  • The FDF's upgraded figures rely on assumptions that the Strait of Hormuz opens to cargo traffic within two to three weeks and that key facilities return to normal within a year.
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Stv broke the news in Scotland, United Kingdom on Wednesday, April 1, 2026.
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