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Mexico Skirts Recession in First Quarter Despite Trump Uncertainty

  • Mexico's economy grew 0.8% annually and 0.2% quarterly in the first quarter of 2025, narrowly avoiding a technical recession.
  • This expansion came after the economy shrank by 0.6% in the final quarter of 2024 and unfolded amid ongoing uncertainty linked to US trade tariffs and protectionist measures.
  • Agriculture surged 7.2% annually and 8.1% quarterly, driving growth despite a 0.7% annual industry contraction and zero growth in services.
  • Foreign investment hit a record $21.4 billion, rising 5.4% from 2024 despite tariff threats, while inflation breached 4.22%, surpassing the central bank's target.
  • Analysts and institutions lowered growth forecasts amid structural industry declines and US tariffs, signaling potential economic contraction later in 2025.
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El Economista broke the news in on Thursday, May 22, 2025.
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