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Manhattan prosecutors probe potential insider trading on prediction markets: CNN

Federal prosecutors in Manhattan probe well-timed trades on prediction markets amid rapid industry growth and calls for clearer regulations from lawmakers and regulators.

  • Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are investigating whether lucrative bets placed on prediction markets violate insider trading and anti-fraud laws, marking an escalation by the Justice Department into the fast-growing industry.
  • Fresh scrutiny follows well-timed wagers on high-profile events, including the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and war outcomes in Iran, raising concerns about potential access to nonpublic information.
  • U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton warned that prediction markets do not "insulate you from fraud," though criminal defense lawyer Aitan Goelman noted prosecuting such cases remains legally untested.
  • Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are proactively updating rules and investigating suspicious activity, with Kalshi having referred over a dozen cases to law enforcement in the past year.
  • State-Level enforcement is intensifying: California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom recently banned state officials from using insider knowledge on prediction markets, while Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi for allegedly operating an illegal gambling business.
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Feds Sniffing Around Polymarket After Suspicious Bets

Insider trading is a big problem. But how do you protect against it?

·United States
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KIFIKIFI
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Center

By Kara Scannell, CNN. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are investigating whether certain lucrative bets placed on prediction markets have violated insider trading and other laws, multiple sources told CNN. The heads of the securities and commodities fraud unit of the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York recently met with representatives of Polymarket, one of the leading prediction market platforms, to discuss how existin…

·Idaho Falls, United States
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NBC News broke the news in United States on Monday, March 30, 2026.
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