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Lula’s Lead over Bolsonaro Narrows Ahead of Brazil Vote, CNT/MDA Poll Shows

The CNT/MDA poll showed Lula at 43.1% in the first round and 47.3% in a runoff, with 2,007 respondents surveyed.

  • On Saturday, a CNT/MDA poll showed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula leading Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 43.1% to 38% ahead of Sunday's first-round vote.
  • A September 15 poll previously showed Lula at 40.5% and Bolsonaro at 30.4%, demonstrating Lula's lead widened as the election approached.
  • When considering only projected valid votes, Lula reached 47.8% support against Bolsonaro's 42.1%, according to an MDA survey of 2,007 people with a 2.2 percentage point margin of error.
  • If no candidate exceeds more than 50% of valid votes on Sunday, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25, where Lula would receive 47.3% support.
  • Bolsonaro greeted supporters at a campaign rally in Santa Barbara do Oeste on October 3, one day before the general election, as the Liberal Party candidate seeks to narrow the gap.
Insights by Ground AI

55 Articles

Lean Left

Brazil's presidential election on Sunday isn't just about who runs the government—it's a test of President Trump's way in Latin America and the future of the Amazon, Axios reports. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva faces Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, heir to the movement built by his father, Jair Bolsonaro,...

·Miami, United States
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Far Left

The CNT/MDA poll places President Lula with 47.8 percent of valid votes compared to 38 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro.

·Caracas, Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)
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Right

The latest polls before Sunday's vote show that neither current President Lula nor his would-be successor, Flavio Bolsonaro, has a strong lead to win in the first round of the presidential election.

·Marousi, Greece
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Hola NewsHola News
+2 Reposted by 2 other sources
Center

São Paulo, Oct 3 (EFE).- More than 158 million Brazilians are called to the polls this Sunday in elections that will not only decide the permanence of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or the rise of the ultra-rightist Flávio Bolsonaro, but will redefine the balance of power in the region against the pressure of [...] Entry Brazil goes to the polls to define its course, with Lula and Bolsonaro under Trump's shadow was first published in HolaNews.

ReutersReuters
+8 Reposted by 8 other sources
Center

Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil vote, CNT/MDA poll ...

·London, United Kingdom
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Bias Distribution

  • 38% of the sources lean Left, 38% of the sources lean Right
38% Right

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Axios broke the news in Arlington, United States on Friday, October 2, 2026.
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