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Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil election poll

Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro 40% to 32% in a first-round scenario, while a runoff would favor the president 48% to 43%, Datafolha said.

  • On Friday, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula maintained his lead over opposition senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a new Datafolha poll ahead of Brazil's October presidential election.
  • Survey results show Lula leading with 40% of first-round votes compared to Bolsonaro's 32%, while a potential runoff would result in a 48% to 43% victory for the incumbent.
  • The United States imposed a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods last week, citing unfair trade practices—a charge Lula's administration rejects as inaccurate.
  • Senator Bolsonaro faced fresh scrutiny as the poll followed a public rift with his stepmother, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, regarding party affairs.
  • Brazil requires a candidate to secure more than 50% of valid votes to avoid a second-round vote, a threshold no contender has currently surpassed.
Insights by Ground AI

29 Articles

Lean Right

Two polls published on Monday mark contradictory tendencies in the Brazilians' intention to vote, but both anticipate a second round

·Vicente López, Argentina
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The oldest son of the convicted ex-Chairman of State will compete as presidential candidate in the elections.

·Zürich, Switzerland
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Left

As a candidate against President Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro landed as heir to his father, the former head of the extreme right-wing state Jair Bolsonaro.

·Paris, France
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Bias Distribution

  • 36% of the sources lean Left, 36% of the sources lean Right
36% Right

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El Economista broke the news in Mexico City, Mexico on Friday, July 24, 2026.
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