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Impact of Iran-Israel Conflict on Oil Could Last for Years

  • On June 22, 2025, the United States launched coordinated airstrikes destroying three Iranian nuclear sites, escalating the Israel-Iran conflict.
  • The strikes followed rising tensions after Israel's June 13 attacks on Iran and a shift from proxy to direct confrontation following the 2023-2024 Gaza War.
  • The conflict has sparked concerns about a potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passageway responsible for transporting one-fifth of the world's oil, contributing to an approximate $10 increase in crude oil prices compared to early June.
  • Goldman Sachs forecast a $10 crude price increase and warned the recession risk remains at 30% if the strait closes, while JPMorgan noted a 75% oil price spike is possible in a worsening scenario.
  • The conflict risks prolonging global economic instability and inflation, with experts urging regions like Africa to proactively manage domestic impacts amid potential energy price and trade disruptions.
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The threat of an Israeli or U.S. attack on Iran has weighed on the oil markets for decades. However, now that it has happened, the market seems insecure in its attempts to discount the implications for energy, the Financial Times said. So far, supply disruptions have been minimal and the oil market has been minimally affected by the ongoing conflict.

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Live Mint broke the news in New Delhi, India on Sunday, June 22, 2025.
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