US Edition
U.S. Federal Reserve Researchers Sing Praises of Prediction Markets
Federal Reserve economists found Kalshi's prediction markets provide statistically significant improvements over Bloomberg consensus and Fed Funds futures for CPI and rate forecasts.
- On Thursday, Federal Reserve economists published a paper finding Kalshi markets offer high-frequency, distributionally rich forecasts valuable to researchers and policymakers.
- One advantage cited by the researchers is Kalshi's high-frequency data, which provides continuously updated intraday probability distributions that reveal intraday dynamics often missed by daily data.
- In head-to-head comparisons, researchers found Kalshi delivered a statistically significant improvement over Bloomberg consensus for headline Consumer Price Index forecasts and achieved a perfect forecast record the day before Fed meetings, outperforming fed funds futures.
- Institutional interest is rising as Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon revealed in January the bank is considering expanding into prediction markets amid regulatory clashes between the CFTC and state regulators.
- The report also flags risk premia and low-volume market noise from retail traders, noting insider trading examples but saying manipulation concerns may be overstated.
16 Articles
16 Articles
Kalshi may be more useful than some traditional economic forecasting methods, Fed researchers find
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour touted the paper as "incredible."Nikolas Kokovlis/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesKalshi says it's more than just betting and that it offers high-quality forecasts.Now, a research paper from a group of Federal Reserve economists is backing that up.The researchers found that Kalshi can sometimes be even better than traditional forecasting methods.Kalshi may be good for more than just making a quick buck.A new research paper publ…
Bitcoin.com
Cryptocurrency News | Cryptocurrency Prices | Market CapFederal Reserve Paper Reinforces Kalshi's Value as Accurate Macroeconomic Prediction Tool
The paper, which examined several prediction markets on the platform, concluded that Kalshi, as a regulated platform, provided a valid and accurate benchmark for macroeconomic figures, surpassing surveys and forecasts by providing data not available from other sources. Kalshi Receives Praise as an Alternative to Predict Macroeconomic Variables The prediction market phenomenon is changing how […]
Researchers at the U.S. Federal Reserve believe that Kalshi surpasses futures and forecasters to anticipate rates and inflation, with statistically significant gains. Kalshi's predictions have matched perfectly with the fed funds rate achieved at each meeting since 2022, an unprecedented feat in the face of traditional surveys and markets. Predictive markets, driven by retail and supported by Jump Trading, the CFTC and the CME Group, gain instit…
The Kalshi prediction market can serve more than just make money fast.A new research paper published by a trio of Federal Reserve economists (Fed) suggests that the predictive market platform is a useful method for measuring macroeconomic expectations, and that it may even be better than some traditional methods."Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency benchmark, continuously updated and rich in terms of distribution, wh…
Coverage Details
Bias Distribution
- 67% of the sources lean Left
Factuality
To view factuality data please Upgrade to Premium
