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Investors Brace for Possible Rate Hike at Uncertain Fed Meeting
Investors see a 70% chance of a quarter-point increase, while a Bloomberg survey shows most economists expect the Fed to hold rates steady.
Investors head into next week's Federal Reserve meeting uncertain whether officials will raise interest rates, with market odds for a quarter-percentage point hike fluctuating around roughly 70% ahead of Wednesday's decision.
Amid inflation running above the Fed's 2% annual target, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure following his hawkish speech last month at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which signaled the central bank's inflation-fighting focus.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.96% on Thursday, its highest level in nearly three years, pressuring stocks as investors scrutinize whether a potential rate increase signals a sustained policy cycle or an isolated move.
While a Bloomberg survey shows most economists expect the central bank to hold rates steady this month, BNY Wealth chief investment officer Alicia Levine called the decision "it's kind of a razor's edge."
Policymakers face the proximity of the November 3 midterm elections, with analysts suggesting the timing requires "especially strong data" for any rate adjustment at the October meeting.