J.P. Morgan, BNP Paribas forecast December ECB rate hike as energy risks linger
6 Articles
6 Articles
US Market: J.P. Morgan, BNP Paribas expect ECB rate hike in December as inflation risks persist
J.P. Morgan and BNP Paribas now expect the European Central Bank to deliver another 25-basis-point rate hike in December, reversing their earlier calls for the tightening cycle to end without a December increase. Persistent inflation risks, elevated energy prices and resilient economic growth are driving the shift, while markets are already pricing in a near-certain 25-basis-point hike at the ECB’s September meeting.
The rise in inflation in the euro area to 3.3% in August and the strengthening pressure on energy prices changed expectations for the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). While markets largely priced in a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 10 meeting, the fact that JPMorgan and BNP Paribas also began expecting increases in December raised the possibility that the ECB's tightening process could take longer.
JPMorgan expects the ECB to raise interest for the third time in December to 2.75%, following a second almost certain raise to 2.5% during next week's meeting. The economist Greg Fozisi explained that this projection reflects a interplay of several factors: more sustained energy price pressures, strong growth, [...] the article JP Morgan expects to raise interest for the third time in December written in the Stock Exchange.
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