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Japan's economy expands annualised 0.2% in Q4, below forecast
Japan's Q4 growth slowed to 0.2% annualized as export declines and cost-of-living pressures offset modest private consumption gains, missing economists' 1.6% forecast.
- Japan's Cabinet Office reported on Monday that the economy grew an annualised 0.2%, with a 0.1% quarterly rise, missing the 1.6% forecast.
- Net external demand showed zero growth contribution as private consumption rose 0.1% and Japanese corporations' capital spending gained 0.2% amid U.S. tariffs.
- Official figures show real GDP for calendar-year 2025 rose 1.1%, nominal GDP increased 0.6% quarter on quarter, about 2.2% annualised, while government spending and imports dragged growth.
- Since growth resumed, the weak print bolsters Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's case for more fiscal stimulus, as the Bank of Japan continues rate normalization, according to sources.
- Ahead of the April 1 fiscal year, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to roll out revival policies, with the Japan Center for Economic Research survey predicting 1.04 and 1.12 growth in coming months.
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54 Articles
Asia Intelligence Brief for Monday, February 16, 2026
Monday, February 16, 2026 What matters today 1 Japan GDP disappoints — Q4 2025 GDP grew just 0.1% q/q (0.2% annualised), far below consensus of 0.4% (1.6% annualised); avoids technical recession but underscores fragility; Nikkei settles at 56,942; yen weakens to 153.06; PM Takaichi meets BOJ Governor Ueda at 5pm to coordinate fiscal-monetary response 2 […]
Japan's economy has only increased by 0.2% per year in the last quarter of 2025, thus avoiding a technical recession, according to government-published monthly data. For the entire year, growth was 1.1%, at the bottom of the decline...
Japan narrowly avoids recession as GDP grows 0.2% annually in last quarter of 2025
According to preliminary data released on Monday, Japan's economy grew by 0.2 percent annually in the last quarter of 2025, bouncing back from a contraction in the previous quarter but far below expectations of +1.6 percent growth. Also in this edition, Warner Bros. Discovery is reportedly considering reopening sale talks with Paramount Skydance. Plus, China's successful "winter economy" could be a blueprint to bolster domestic consumption.
Japan's GDP returns to growth in Q4, but misses market forecasts;
In Q4 2025, Japan's GDP grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, recovering from a 0.7% decline in Q3 but falling short of the expected 0.4% rise. The annualized growth rate was 0.2%, compared to a revised 2.6% contraction in the prior quarter and less than
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