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Japan’s Benchmark Bond Yield Rises to 3% for First Time in 30 Years

Investors are pricing a 92% chance of a BOJ move by September as fiscal worries and higher US rates push selling in Japanese government bonds.

  • Japan's 10-year government bond yield touched 3% on Tuesday, marking the highest level in 29 years as the debt market returns to normality after years of near-zero borrowing costs.
  • Investors are aggressively betting the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates soon, with overnight index swaps implying a 92 per cent probability of a move by September.
  • Against this backdrop, the finance ministry is seeking a record 36.6 trillion yen for debt-servicing costs, while international investors now account for two-thirds of monthly cash JGB transactions.
  • Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government is said to support a near-term hike in response to yen weakness, while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to "do the right thing" on monetary policy.
  • Fiscal concerns remain prominent as the government seeks to fund rising debt costs, while analysts suggest rising yields will weigh on existing portfolios and fuel global market volatility flowing into Japan.
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Japan's ten-year government bonds were updated on Tuesday for a maximum of three decades on the expectations of monetary tightening.

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  • 56% of the sources lean Right
56% Right

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産経ニュース broke the news in Japan on Monday, August 31, 2026.
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