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Trump Says Iran War 'Pretty Much' Over, But Tehran Says They Will Decide The End — Here's What Crypto Prediction Market Is Betting On

Market odds show a 73% chance of war ending by April 30 as Iran’s IRGC asserts the conflict’s outcome depends on Tehran, amid heavy U.S. strikes and regional tensions.

  • On Monday, President said the conflict could be ending and Iran's military is sharply weakened, stating 'If you look, they have nothing left. There's nothing left in a military sense'.
  • Traders on Polymarket, using USDC, pushed odds that Trump or U.S. officials will declare the end by March 31 to 44%, up from 11%.
  • The IRGC responded that Tehran will decide when operations end and that regional equations now lie with Iranian forces, rejecting US strike figures and timeline.
  • Meanwhile, Iran's IRGC insists it will decide when the war ends, affecting regional diplomacy as oil prices briefly spike and global supply routes face uncertainty.
  • Punters priced a 73% chance the fighting ends by April 30 and 82% by June 30, while odds of strikes by third countries dropped to 45%.
Insights by Ground AI

38 Articles

Lean Right

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has stressed this Tuesday that Tehran will be “the one to determine when the war ends,” after U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that the military offensive with Israel against the Asian country, launched by surprise on February 28, “is almost over.” “We are continuing the war with all our might and it will be Iran that determines when the war ends,” the Revolutionary Guard said, stressing that “the Iranian Armed …

·Chile
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Far Right

The response to the president's announcement that it may soon be over. "American forces will not end the war."

stern.destern.de
+6 Reposted by 6 other sources
Center

The war in Iran has been raging for more than a week. Trump last went from four to five weeks. Now the US President sends other signals.In the midst of violent Israeli attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump surprisingly brought an early end to the war. "I think the war is almost over. They don't have a navy, no communication systems, they don't have an air force," the US broadcaster CBS News quoted him after a telephone interview. The war is…

·Germany
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  • 47% of the sources lean Right
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the deep dive broke the news in on Monday, March 9, 2026.
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