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Indonesia doubles down on coal to power its aluminum expansion
Chinese companies are backing most planned projects as Indonesia targets 14.5 million metric tons of aluminum output by 2030, analysts said.
Indonesia plans to scale aluminum production from 1 million to 14.5 million metric tons by 2030, building 32 captive off-grid coal plants to power new smelters amid global supply shortages.
The Iran war cut Middle East aluminum output by 44%, driving prices to $3,780 per metric ton in June from pre-conflict levels of $3,150–$3,250, prompting Indonesia to accelerate its industrial expansion.
Chinese companies have invested $5.5 billion to $6 billion in Indonesian projects, with capital inflows forecast to surge to $30 billion by 2030 as China seeks to reduce domestic emissions.
Environmental groups, including the Indonesian Forum for Environment , warn that captive coal expansion will exacerbate toxic haze, while Indonesia classifies aluminum as 'transition minerals' despite coal reliance.
Binbin Mariana of Market Forces labeled the coal-powered production a 'huge loophole' in climate commitments, while CREA estimates Indonesia's bauxite reserves could be depleted in less than 12 years.