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India sees 6.8%-7.2% growth next year, flags risks from geopolitics, weak exports

India’s Economic Survey upgrades medium-term GDP potential to 7.0%, highlighting risks from US tariffs and trade uncertainties impacting exports and the rupee, official report states.

  • On January 29, 2026, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey projecting real GDP growth between 6.8% and 7.2% for FY27.
  • Survey authors say domestic demand and investment will strengthen in FY27, supported by supply-side reforms , public investment, and growth driven by the PLI Scheme and PM E-DRIVE Scheme.
  • Services data show the sector as a stabilizer, with the Services sector projected at 7%–8% medium-term growth.
  • The Survey warns that U.S. tariffs and the rupee hitting 92 against U.S. dollar could weigh on exports and investor sentiment, adding external risks.
  • Ahead of the Union Budget to be presented on February 1, 2026, the Survey projects agricultural exports could reach $100 billion and judges risks broadly even with domestic demand as a dominant driver.
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Times of India broke the news in India on Tuesday, January 27, 2026.
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