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India forecasts monsoon rains at 11-year low in 2026, fanning inflation risk

The forecast cut comes as a likely El Niño pattern threatens rainfall for hundreds of millions of farmers who depend on the June-September season.

  • Earth Sciences Secretary M. Ravichandran announced Friday that India lowered the Monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-term average, revising the previous 92% estimate issued in April.
  • The IMD warns of a 60% chance of 'deficient' rainfall as a likely El Niño weather pattern is expected to reduce precipitation across Northwest, central and southern India.
  • Hundreds of millions of farmers in India depend on the June-September Monsoon season, which delivers the bulk of annual rainfall crucial for irrigation as the planting period begins.
  • Lower-than-Normal rains may force farmers to rely more on diesel-powered irrigation pumps, lifting fuel demand as Crude oil prices surge due to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The Monsoon reaches India's southern tip around June 1, moving northward to cover the entire subcontinent over the next four to six weeks, though the IMD expects delayed arrival in Kerala.
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Reuters broke the news in New York, United States on Friday, May 29, 2026.
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