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Oil Steady as Investors Weigh Iran Deal, IEA Glut Outlook
Investors weighed a US-Iran deal that could restore Iranian exports against the International Energy Agency’s forecast that global supply will jump 8 million barrels a day by 2027.
On Thursday, oil prices held steady near a three-month low as investors weighed a US-Iran peace deal signed by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian against the International Energy Agency's warning of a 2027 supply overhang.
Extending a tenuous April ceasefire by 60 days, the memorandum signed Sunday attempts to halt hostilities between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon to allow room for permanent truce talks.
Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent price forecast to $80 a barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, while U.S. crude inventories fell 8.3 million barrels last week according to American Petroleum Institute data.
Clouding the situation, Trump told reporters he could "bomb the hell out of them if they violate the agreement," while Israel distanced itself from the pact, fueling uncertainty about whether the deal will hold.
In its first look at 2027, the IEA warned of a significant supply overhang, with global supply set to surge by 8 million bpd and demand rising by just 2 million bpd as markets normalize.
If the agreement between Iran and the US holds, a lot of oil is likely to flow to the world market, the IEA predicts. But months will pass until normalization.
Should the peace agreement between the United States and Iran hold, a significant oil surplus threatens next year, reports the International Energy Agency (IEA). Washington and Tehran are expected to sign the provisional 14-point plan on Friday, extending the current ceasefire by sixty days. After these sixty days, both parties hope to reach a binding agreement.