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How many glaciers in Canada's Arctic can be saved from extinction?

The Swiss-led study published in Nature Climate Change on Dec. 15, 2025, projects that limiting warming to two degrees could save an estimated 1,362 Canadian Arctic glaciers from extinction.
Recent estimates suggest the world is on pace to warm roughly 2.7 degrees under current policy trajectory, well above international targets of two degrees and 1.5 degrees, with fossil-fuel emissions already driving major glacier losses.
Using three models, the team simulated more than 200,000 glaciers under four warming scenarios and coined "peak glacier extinction," identifying peak years around 2041 and averaging 2081.
Regionally, the study finds stark contrasts across Canada's Arctic as 96 per cent of the region's 17,723 glaciers could vanish, and Canada's southern Arctic may lose 60 per cent of its 7,406 glaciers.
Under extreme warming of four degrees, the study projects only 101 glaciers remain, peak losses shift to the mid-2050s reaching around 4,000 glaciers per year, with about 6.5 trillion tonnes of ice lost in recent years.

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