US Edition
How Long Has Reform Enjoyed a Lead in Opinion Polls?
Reform UK has maintained a consistent lead in UK national polls since May 2025, averaging around 29% support despite recent shifts in betting odds, according to the Press Association.
- For the week ending February 15, 2026, Press Association averages show Reform UK has led national opinion polls since May 2025, while Ladbrokes' market shows Labour at 13/8 and Reform UK at 7/4.
- Rising fragmentation on the right has seen Rupert Lowe, Restore Britain founder, emerge, potentially splitting Reform UK's potential vote and softening its momentum, analysts suggest.
- YouGov's Feb 15–16 survey found 24% backing Reform, down from 27%, with the poll averages for the week ending February 15, 2026, showing Reform on 29%.
- Gorton & Denton on February 26 will be a key litmus test where Nigel Farage hopes Reform leader Matt Goodwin can convert national poll leads into a win.
- By September 2025, Reform UK's lead grew to nine to 10 points and has stayed stable, while betting markets reflect less confidence despite the party claiming 60,000 members.
11 Articles
11 Articles
Evening Standard
How long has Reform enjoyed a lead in opinion polls?
Reform has averaged a nine to 10-point lead in the polls since autumn 2025.
Reform’s poll ratings fall again
Reform UK’s popularity has fallen again, with the party now polling just five points ahead of the Labour Party, according to the latest YouGov poll. The poll found that right now current parliamentary voting intentions are as follows: Reform: 24% (-3) Labour: 19% (=) Conservative: 18% (=) Green: 17% (+1) Lib Dem: 13% (-1) The numbers highlight the fragmented nature of the vote under First Past the Post, with just six points separating the three…
Reform no longer the favourites to win next election
Reform UK is no longer the bookmakers’ favourites to win the most seats at the next general election, according to new odds from Ladbrokes. The latest market has Labour leading at 13/8, with Reform UK drifting to 7/4. The Conservatives sit further back on 11/2, followed by the Greens at 8/1, Restore Britain at 20/1 and the Liberal Democrats at 40/1. In a post on X, Ladbrokes said: “For the first time since May 2025, Reform UK are no longer favou…
Labour are, just, the favourites on the most seats markets now
Right now Labour are an implied 34% chance of winning most seats at the next general election versus Reform who are a 33.8% chance. As we can see in th second chart this is the first time Labour have been the favourites in this market since June 2025. TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday until the 1st of March
Coverage Details
Bias Distribution
- 60% of the sources lean Left
Factuality
To view factuality data please Upgrade to Premium
