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El Niño Likely to Bring Warm, Dry, Smoky Summer to Minnesota, MPCA Says

Scientists say a strong El Niño could drive average global temperatures to about 1.7 C above preindustrial levels, with lasting climate shifts.

  • In a world already superheated, a strong El Niño during the next 12 to 18 months could permanently push Earth's average annual temperature past the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold, according to scientific documents.
  • Climate scientists recently published a study in Nature Communications showing strong El Niño events trigger "climate regime shifts," meaning abrupt, lasting changes in heat, rainfall, and drought patterns.
  • Impacts like coral bleaching and mass die-offs persist for decades, according to Jong-Seong Kug of Seoul National University, who identified "regime-shift hotspots" in oceans including the North Pacific and Gulf.
  • International public adaptation finance fell to $26 billion in 2023, according to the United Nations Environment Programme's 2025 Adaptation Gap Report, far short of the hundreds of billions developing countries will need annually by 2035.
  • The MPCA predicted an "active" air quality season in a news release Thursday, May 7, warning the state could see four to six days of unhealthy ozone levels this summer.
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El Niño likely to bring warm, dry, smoky summer to Minnesota, MPCA says

Meteorologists at the state pollution control agency predict that wildfire smoke and ozone conditions this summer will be similar to those seen in 2024.

·Fargo, United States
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Vox broke the news in United States on Wednesday, May 6, 2026.
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