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Hormuz Closure Threatens the Global Food Supply -– Why Grocery Price Hikes Are Coming
Supply cuts from Iran, Russia and China are pushing fertilizer prices up more than 40% in the U.S., threatening crop yields and food costs.
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reducing global fertilizer supplies, as the waterway carries roughly a third of internationally traded fertilizer essential for crop production worldwide.
- War with Iran and sanctions on Belarus and Russia constrain potash and nitrogen production, while natural gas costs determining 70% to 90% of nitrogen fertilizer production have surged up to 70%.
- By mid-March 2026, U.S. fertilizer supplies fell to around 75% of normal levels, while reducing nitrogen application by 10% to 15% can lower corn yields by 10% to 25%.
- Food price hikes hit low-income households harder, as retail prices for livestock products typically take two to four months to adjust after production costs rise.
- The World Food Program predicts an additional 45 million people could face food insecurity by the end of 2026 if Middle East conflict persists, with prices likely remaining elevated even after hostilities cease.
14 Articles
14 Articles
Hormuz closure threatens the global food supply
The global energy crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is only the beginning of the economic cost of the war with Iran. I study how institutions affect businesses and supply chains, and I expect food prices to rise next, with high prices lasting even after whatever point hostilities end. Along with about 20% of the world’s crude oil trade and a similar share of the world’s liquefied natural gas shipments, shipping traffic through…
Strait of Hummus: The Grocery Price Shock Ahead
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global energy crisis and severe fertilizer shortages as one-third of internationally traded fertilizer passes through this vital waterway. Farmers face reduced productivity because essential nutrients like nitrogen and phosphate are becoming scarce and expensive. Supply chain disruptions will inevitably lead to higher grocery prices for consumers and a burgeoning food emergency for vulnerable n…
Why the Hormuz Closure Threatens the Global Food Supply and Grocery Prices
Republished with permission from The Conversation, by Aya S. Chacar, Florida International University The global energy crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is only the beginning of the economic cost of the war with Iran. I study how institutions affect businesses and supply chains, and I expect food prices to rise next, with high prices lasting even after whatever point hostilities end. Along with about 20% of the world’s crude …
Hormuz Crisis Threatens World Food Supply, Grocery Prices
By Aya S. Chacar, Florida International University (The Conversation) – The global energy crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is only the beginning of the economic cost of the war with Iran. I study how institutions affect businesses and supply chains, and I expect food prices to rise next, with high prices lasting even after whatever point hostilities end. Along with about 20% of the world’s crude oil trade and a similar share …
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