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Government spending on seniors' benefits soon to make up majority of federal budget
The report says an aging population and record deficits are pushing more federal dollars toward seniors’ benefits, with lower-income retirees facing the biggest cuts.
The Joint Economic Committee's 2026 report projects non-interest federal spending on Social Security and Medicare will climb from 45% to 52% over the next decade, meaning more than half the federal budget will support Americans 65 and older by 2036.
America's 65-and-older population will surge from about 61 million in 2023 to about 77 million by 2035, while demographic trends and government overspending combine to accelerate rising senior benefit costs across both programs.
Both Social Security and Medicare trust funds face insolvency within seven years, triggering automatic benefit cuts up to 28% across the board; a median earner making $60,000 would need to pay an additional $2,600 annually to maintain current benefit levels, according to Cato Institute analysis.
Cato Institute director Romina Boccia wrote that automatic cuts in 2032 will harm lower-income retirees most while wealthy households scarcely notice, as over 80 percent of taxes from the bottom 40 percent of households function as direct transfers to seniors.
The Republican section of the JEC report proposes expanding the workforce through immigration reform rather than raising taxes or cutting wealthier seniors' benefits, though the Trump administration has signaled reluctance to increase immigration in the near future.