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Why China and Russia Blinked as US Moved on Venezuela

China and Russia avoided military intervention in Venezuela due to geographic distance, high escalation risks, and strategic commitments elsewhere, revealing limits to their global power projection.

  • Earlier this month, the United States military struck Caracas, resulting in the arrest and extradition of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife amid explosions near Fuerte Tiuna.
  • Structural realism shows that geographic and alliance constraints meant China and Russia lacked permanent bases in the Western Hemisphere and faced other strategic commitments limiting intervention.
  • Washington's logistical and intelligence edge meant Caracas is only hours from Florida, while Beijing and Moscow are oceans away, enabling a rapid strike operation.
  • Diplomatic reactions replaced force, as both powers sought to condemn the US at the United Nations but mounted no military response, arguably damaging their credibility as security guarantors by allowing Maduro's arrest.
  • Long-Term, the episode signals a pivot toward normative influence as China and Russia court Global South support, while middle powers accelerate hedging, exposing multipolar hard power limits.
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DOBLE LLAVE – The secretary general of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), Diosdado Cabello, said that the country is "quiet" and in "peace", after two weeks of the military attack by the United States on Caracas and three other regions that ended with the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. "This people is so calm, at peace, because there is the Bolivarian revolution, otherwise it would not be like…

The Nicaraguan government, led by husbands Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, would seek to negotiate with the United States after the capture of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores in Venezuela, in view of the possibility of a domino effect, according to the Center for Transdisciplinary Studies of Central America (Cetcam). Prior to the U.S. eruption in Caracas to capture the Chavista leader and his wife, Nicaragua appointed its chancellor, Denis Mo…

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Aporrea broke the news in on Monday, January 19, 2026.
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