GOP path to retaining US House majority narrowing as midterms near
Republicans face low Trump approval, rising costs and turnout problems as Democrats hold a lead in 21 toss-up House races, analysts said.
- With less than 70 days until the midterm elections, Democrats remain favored to regain the U.S. House majority, with the Cook Political Report listing 21 House races as toss-ups and Republicans defending 16 seats.
- President Donald Trump's popularity sits below 40% in most polls, while economic concerns and the war in Iran pose significant headwinds for Republican candidates heading into November.
- Among registered voters, 36% favor the Democratic plan regarding the cost of living compared with 28% choosing Republicans; Democratic campaign strategist Reed Adamson said voters gave Republicans "homework to lower prices" in 2024 they failed to complete.
- The National Republican Congressional Committee holds a $13.7 million cash-on-hand advantage as of mid-July, though Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report noted competitive districts maintain variance, leaving paths open for Democrats.
- Political scientist Ryan Owens noted that without Trump on the ballot, Republicans struggle to activate their coalition, which now relies less on college-educated voters; Erin Covey stated the GOP must "pitch a perfect game" to hold their majority.
28 Articles
28 Articles
With costs high and Trump unpopular, Democrats favored to retake the House
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U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaks at the Detroit NAACP Fight For Freedom Fund Dinner on April 26, 2026. Jeffries is in line to become House speaker if Democrats win control of the chamber in November. (Photo by Andrew Roth/Michigan Advance)WASHINGTON — With less than 70 days until midterm elections, Democrats remain favored to regain the majority in the U.S. House. President Donald Trump’s anemic approval ratings amid the war i…
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U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaks at the Detroit NAACP Fight For Freedom Fund Dinner on April 26, 2026. Jeffries is in line to become House speaker if Democrats win control of the chamber in November. (Photo by Andrew Roth/Michigan Advance)WASHINGTON — With less than 70 days until midterm elections, Democrats remain favored to regain the majority in the U.S. House. President Donald Trump’s anemic approval ratings amid the war i…
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