Goldman Says Brent May Top $120 if Hormuz Disruptions Persist
Goldman said shipping disruptions and lower inventories have left oil markets exposed, with Brent futures last at $88.65 a barrel.
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned on Monday that Brent crude could climb above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, though analysts noted this scenario is not their central expectation.
- Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran have pushed Persian Gulf oil flows to below 45% of pre-war levels, driving crude prices higher this month.
- Risks to forecasts remain "tilted to the upside" given ongoing shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, while Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened to blockade shipments from Saudi Arabia.
- India, which imports more than 85% of its crude oil, faces significant economic pressure; domestic brokerage JM Financial estimates every $1 increase in crude prices raises the annual import bill by around $2 billion.
- Goldman currently sees Brent at $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 next year, assuming de-escalation of regional tensions; weaker Chinese crude imports may limit the extent of further gains.
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The Brent type oil, international reference, can rise to more than USD 120 per barrel until the fourth quarter if the blockades in the Strait of Ormuz persist, previews the Goldman Sachs , although this is not the base scenario of the bank. Strategy: Lula Government takes advantage of the reaction to the US tariff to approach the business before the election Understand what changes: Government closes agreement on labor in trade on holidays "The …
US investment bank Goldman Sachs analyzed the impact of conflicts in the Middle East and supply problems in the Persian Gulf on oil prices. While the bank's baseline scenario predicts Brent oil will fall to $80 by the end of the year, it warned that prices could exceed $120 if the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz deepens.
Goldman Sachs does not rule out sharp growth in the fourth quarter if the disruption of navigation through the Strait of Ormuz continues.
Goldman Sachs' scenarios - How will oil prices move against the backdrop of the new flare-up in the Middle East? The post Goldman: Above $120 per barrel if disruptions in Hormuz continue appeared first on in.gr.
$120, however, is not the base case scenario of the American bank, which favors the possibility of Brent reaching $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $75 in 2027.
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