Goldman Sachs Cuts Brent Forecast to $80 as Hormuz Reopening Calms Supply Fears
Goldman now sees Brent averaging $80 a barrel in Q4 2026 as the deal speeds Persian Gulf export recovery by one month.
- On Monday, President Donald Trump and Iranian negotiators signed an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend a 60-day ceasefire, prompting Goldman Sachs to lower its oil price forecasts amid improved supply outlooks.
- The agreement seeks to end historic energy shocks that roiled global markets, with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and chief Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf scheduled to attend a signing ceremony in Geneva this Friday.
- Goldman Sachs strategists, led by Daan Struyven, cut their fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $80 per barrel from $90, while Brent fell about 4% on Tuesday to trade near $80 a barrel, reaching lowest levels in over three months.
- Struyven warned the recovery could falter, noting Iran "might effectively close the Strait again even after re-opening," should nuclear talks fail, though Goldman expects Persian Gulf exports to normalize by the end of July.
- Despite projecting a 3.2 million barrel-per-day global supply surplus in 2027, the bank sees resilient prices supported by structural stockpiling of more than 1 million barrels per day, even as Gulf countries invest in infrastructure to bypass the strait.
21 Articles
21 Articles
Goldman Sachs cuts Brent forecast to $80 as Hormuz reopening calms supply fears
Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent crude outlook after a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz raised hopes of a quicker recovery in Middle East oil exports. However, the bank warned prices could still surge above $130 if geopolitical tensions return.
The American bank reduces its estimates of oil prices, but to levels very close to the current ones, estimating that most of the benefits of the US-Iran agreement have already been passed on to the financial markets, writes the Greek press. Goldman Sachs's merchandise research team, led by Dan Stryven, has reduced its forecasts for Brent for the last months of this year to 80 ...
The US Bank expects the average value of Brent's barrel to be $80 in the fourth quarter of this year, instead of $90, and the WTI will reach $75, given the previous expectation of $85.
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