Goldman: Diesel Prices Set to Stay High Through 2027 as Refineries Struggle to Meet Demand
Supply is tight as refineries run at capacity and inventories fall to the lowest levels for this time of year since 1980, analysts said.
- Nikhil Bhandari, Goldman's co-head of Asia-Pacific natural resources research, forecasts global diesel and jet-fuel crack spreads will average above $40 per barrel in 2027, more than double their usual $20 level.
- Global refining capacity outside China is expected to contract by roughly 300,000 barrels per day in 2026, while damaged Russian facilities and roughly 2 million barrels of Middle Eastern capacity remain offline, straining supply.
- In Ohio on Sept. 22, diesel hit a record $6.80 per gallon, and Dayton-based data analyst Eric Pachman warns prices could reach $10 as reserves hit record lows since 1980.
- Pachman argued that Ohio's suspension of the 47-cent-a-gallon diesel tax until Jan. 2, costing about $725 million, artificially warps marketplace dynamics when goods become scarce and should motivate demand reduction.
- Replenishing global inventories could take up to two years, experts warn, though if the economy enters another Great Recession from spiking energy costs, diesel demand destruction may eventually limit further price growth.
26 Articles
26 Articles
$10 Diesel? One Ohio Analyst Says It’s Possible
When truck stops and gas stations erected their signs, they didn’t anticipate needing two digits before the decimal point. But an Ohio-based data analyst who used to work in the energy industry says it’s a distinct possibility that they’ll need to find one for diesel. As President Donald Trump’s war with Iran has continued, the […]
Bad news for drivers: diesel could remain expensive by 2027. Refineries fail to keep pace with demand, and reprocessing stocks puts even more pressure on prices.
$10 diesel? One Ohio analyst says it's possible.
When truck stops and gas stations erected their signs, they didn’t anticipate needing two digits before the decimal point. But an Ohio-based data analyst who used to work in the energy industry says it’s a distinct possibility that they’ll need to find one for diesel. As President Donald Trump’s war with Iran has continued, the […]
The prices of diesel could remain high throughout 2027, as the overall refining capacity is insufficient to cover the recovery of demand and the recovery of depleted stocks, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis, reports CNBC.
Trump's challenge: More crude, same high diesel prices – Hormuz flows and US output may not help
Diesel prices are set to remain elevated in the US and globally through 2027, Goldman Sachs warns.Even as some crude continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz and US oil production hits a record 13.95 million barrels per day, that doesn’t...
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