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August Rate Cut 'as Close to a Done Deal as Can Be the Case' - Stephen Toplis

NEW ZEALAND, JUL 20 – Inflation rose to 2.7% driven by food, power, housing, and local government rate increases, with rent and rates contributing over 25% of the annual rise, Stats NZ reported.

  • Stats NZ reported a 2.7% annual inflation rate in the June 2025 quarter, driven by rising food, power, and housing costs, pushing inflation to a 14-year high.
  • Surging costs led by food, power, and housing, with export-driven food prices and butter prices up nearly 50 percent.
  • The largest upward driver was electricity prices, which Nicola Growden said surged 4.9 percent, marking the biggest quarterly jump.
  • Following the release, markets are now pricing a 75 percent chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut in August, as the New Zealand dollar dipped 0.3 percent to US$0.5941.
  • Projections indicate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expects to lower the official cash rate further if medium-term inflation pressures ease, while ASB senior economist Mark Smith forecasts inflation above 3% in the September quarter but temporary.
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Daily Sun broke the news in on Sunday, July 20, 2025.
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