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Experts Release Updated France–Morocco World Cup Prediction Following Recent Injury Updates

On Thursday, July 9, 2026, tournament frontrunner France faces Morocco in a World Cup quarterfinal at 4:00 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, with France positioned as the heavy favorite.
France arrives undefeated at 5-0, while Morocco secured its second consecutive quarterfinal appearance following a 3-0 win over Canada. The teams last met in the 2022 World Cup semifinals in Qatar, where France won 2-0.
Dimers simulations project a 59.2% chance for France to win in regulation, while Kalshi traders price France at 78% to advance. Analysts also identify a 57.6% probability the match stays under 2.5 goals.
Kylian Mbappe headlines France's attack with a 40.3% chance to score, while Morocco faces uncertainty over leading scorer Ismael Saibari. Saibari's status remains in doubt after leaving Saturday's match with an injury.
With only eight countries remaining, the winner advances to the semifinals in a tournament concluding in just 12 days. Both teams are at full health, setting the stage for a high-stakes battle for the 2026 World Cup Trophy.

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