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Forecasters add new tool to track violent storm threats

Starting this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center will add a 'Conditional Intensity' alert to its outlooks to flag storms that may become especially violent.
SPC forecasters have been producing conditional intensity forecasts internally since late 2021 and refined them over more than four years of testing, while outlooks previously emphasized storm spread, not intensity, with hatched areas indicating elevated concern.
Conditional Intensity adds three levels on Day 1–3 outlook maps, with tornado EF2–EF4 thresholds, and 'That hatching looked exactly the same whether we were expecting a strong EF2 tornado or a catastrophic EF5', said Liz Leitman.
Local leaders and decision-makers should gain clearer lead time, as NOAA expects that the addition will help communities understand how destructive storms could be, said Evan Bentley.
As spring begins, the rollout follows decades of daily Convective Outlooks, with NOAA noting roughly 10,000 U.S. thunderstorms yearly and about 10% reaching severe criteria.

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