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First major 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast predicts slightly below-average season
Researchers cite a likely El Niño and forecast 75% of average Atlantic activity, with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
- On Thursday, April 9, 2026, Colorado State University researchers released their first 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, predicting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
- Researchers cite the anticipated transition from La Niña to a robust El Niño as the primary driver for the below-average forecast, as the pattern increases vertical wind shear that disrupts tropical storm development.
- The outlook predicts activity at about 75% of a typical season, with a 32% probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline.
- Delián Colón-Burgos, a forecast co-author, emphasized that communities should "take it seriously" regardless of the statistics, noting it only takes one hurricane to make it an active season.
- The team acknowledges the difficulty of April forecasting—termed the "Spring Predictability Barrier"—and will release updated outlooks on June 10, July 8, and August 5.
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68 Articles
CSU forecasts below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
Colorado State University (CSU) researchers are forecasting a somewhat below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, citing the expected development of El Niño conditions that typically suppress storm formation in the basin. In their initial seasonal outlook, released Thursday, the CSU team projected 13 named storms during the June 1 to Nov. 30 Atlantic season, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher…
First major Atlantic 2026 forecast: What to know
NEW YORK (PIX11) -- The upcoming hurricane season will be slightly below average, according to researchers at Colorado State University. The first major outlook for the 2026 hurricane season was issued April 9 by the university's Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software team. There will be a total of 13 tropical storms that will [...]
S.C. Forecasters predict below-average activity for coming hurricane season
The first outlook from Colorado State University for the 2026 hurricane season suggests that the Atlantic basin could be in store for below-average activity. The post S.C. Forecasters predict below-average activity for coming hurricane season appeared first on Charleston City Paper.
Forecasters Predict Slightly Below Average 2026 Hurricane Season : NorthEscambia.com
A forecast released Thursday by Colorado State University is calling for a slightly below average hurricane forecast. The forecast is due to a robust El Niño as a primary factor for their prediction of 13 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), of which they anticipate six to become hurricanes and two to become major (Category 3, [...]
Forecast Is for 'Somewhat Below Normal' Hurricane Season, But Flagler EM Chief Urges Caution
Colorado State University researchers today predicted a “somewhat below-normal” Atlantic hurricane season: 13 named storms, instead of 14 to 15 in an average year, six hurricanes instead of seven, and two reaching major storm strength instead of three. Flagler County Emergency Management Direcxtor Jonathan Lord cautioned against putting too. much stock on forecasts. The post Forecast Is for ‘Somewhat Below Normal’ Hurricane Season, But Flagler E…
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