Fact Check: What Happens if Asteroid 2024 YR4 Actually Hits the Moon?

Fact Check: What Happens if Asteroid 2024 YR4 Actually Hits the Moon?

The changes of an asteroid hitting the moon on Dec. 22, 2023 have increased. Learn what the experts say will happen if the space rock makes contact.

According to the Nasa calculations, Asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the moon in just under eight years. The risk is currently reported at almost four percent. The energy released would be enormous - and a collision could also have consequences for the Earth.

New Probability for a Lunar Impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4

On April 2, 2025, NASA announced an updated assessment of asteroid 2024 YR4’s trajectory, increasing the estimated probability of a lunar impact on Dec. 22, 2032, from 1.7% to 3.8%. If a collision occurs, the asteroid could create a crater up to 2 km wide, unleashing an estimated 5.2 megatons of TNT-equivalent energy, but it poses no risk to Earth or the Moon’s orbit. New infrared observations from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope on March 26 r…

Mark the day on the calendar: December 22, 2032. That is the date on which NASA predicts that the Moon may be hit by an asteroid. The chances of happening are double what was previously thought. But even so, still small.

Scientists from NASA warned about the probability of collision of asteroid 2024 YR4 with the Moon. When 2024 YR4 was discovered, its probability of meeting with Earth was low, but according to the latest forecasts, scientists reduced it to 0.004%. At the same time, new data from the James Webb Space Telescope have made it possible to update probability estimates. Thus, the risk of an asteroid collision with the Moon on December 22, 2032 has incr…