US Edition
Extended Climate Projections Sharply Raise Risk of AMOC Tipping Within Decades
New climate models indicate a 70% chance of AMOC collapse if emissions rise, with significant impacts on global weather, sea levels, and agriculture forecasted beyond 2100.
- Lead author Sybren Drijfhout and PIK co-authors concluded the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could shut down after 2100 under high-emission scenarios.
- Warming oceans and melting Greenland ice are reducing Atlantic surface salinity and density, triggering self-amplifying feedbacks that make AMOC shutdown effectively inevitable once the tipping point is passed.
- Analyzing extended CMIP6 simulations, researchers found all nine high-emission simulations evolve to weak circulation shutting down deep overturning, with 70% collapse chance if emissions rise, 37% intermediate, 25% low.
- A collapse would cause western Europe to face extreme cold winters and shift tropical rainfall belts, while the US East Coast could see sea levels rise up to 50 centimeters, threatening coastal infrastructure and supply chains.
- Experts urge deep and immediate emissions cuts, warning the tipping point is likely within a few decades and collapse may occur 50 to 100 years later.
39 Articles
39 Articles
Key Atlantic current could start collapsing as early as 2055, new study finds
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation brings heat to the Northern Hemisphere and regulates the climate globally, but research suggests it could weaken significantly in the coming decades.
The Atlantic current, which has stabilised the European climate for millennia, may be on the verge of a historic collapse. A new study now shows that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is no longer just a theoretical option, but could even become irreversible in the coming decades. The AMOC, also known as the Gulf Stream, transports warm water from the tropics to the north, thus ensuring mild winters in Europe. However, c…
While the earth continues to warm up, it could become very cold in northern Europe. Although the Gulf Stream is by no means safe, it is no longer unlikely, according to new climate simulations.
Experts warn about a possible collapse of the main ocean current that regulates the European climate. ...
Collapse Of Critical Atlantic Current Is No Longer Low-Likelihood, Study Finds
The collapse of a critical Atlantic current can no longer be considered a low-likelihood event, a study has concluded, making deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions even more urgent to avoid the catastrophic impact. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is a major part of the global climate system. It brings sun-warmed tropical water to Europe and the Arctic, where it cools and sinks to form a deep return current. The Amoc was alrea…
The likelihood of the AMOC ocean current collapsing has increased and can no longer be considered an “unlikely event,” according to a new study published in Environmental Research Letters yesterday. Recently, climate models suggested that the collapse of the AMOC, the Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, by 2100 was unlikely. That is now changing, as the study published yesterday looked at models that were run for longer,...
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