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ESMA Warns Prediction Market Contracts May Fall Under EU's Retail Binary Options Ban

The European Securities and Markets Authority said Friday that some “event contracts,” the yes-or-no wagers underpinning prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, may fall under the EU’s existing ban on marketing and distributing binary options to retail investors. ESMA said event contracts with a binary payout tied to the outcome of a future event whose underlying assets are financial instruments under MiFID II are derivatives. The commerc…
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What to remember: The ESMA considers that certain contracts for predictive markets fall within the scope of the European ban on binary options. Their sale to individuals is prohibited as soon as they meet the definition of financial instrument. The warning falls as Kalshi, valued at $22 billion, and Polymarket attracts lust. Predictive markets have just found a sizeable opponent in Europe. The ESMA, the European financial market agent, warned Fr…

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L'AGEFI broke the news on Monday, July 6, 2026.
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