ESMA Says EU Retail Ban Covers Many Prediction Markets, With MiCA Awaiting the Tokenized Ones

ESMA Says EU Retail Ban Covers Many Prediction Markets, With MiCA Awaiting the Tokenized Ones

Europe’s top securities regulator has clarified that many prediction-market event contracts already fall under the EU’s existing retail ban on binary options – meaning the restriction is live law, not a proposed rule – while contracts issued as blockchain tokens may instead be caught by the bloc’s crypto framework. The statement leaves platforms such as […]

Europe's Prediction Market Crackdown Could Redefine the Future of Kalshi and Polymarket

Europe just turned prediction markets into prohibited products for retail investors, and the decision carries more weight than any national block before it. On July 3, 2026, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) stated that event contracts with binary payouts — a fixed amount or nothing — can qualify as financial instruments under MiFID II. Once they qualify, they fall under the same retail prohibition the European Union applied t…