Iran War Disruptions Boost Canada’s Leverage Ahead of July CUSMA Review
The Iran war has caused global commodity price spikes, making Canada a key supplier and strengthening its bargaining power for the July Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement review.
- On March 13, 2026, The Canadian Press reported that Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz increased oil and gas prices, while Trump's tariff policy slowed investments, complicating CUSMA talks.
- A fifth of the world's oil typically sails through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's effective closure pushed up crude, gas, and aluminum prices while fertilizer and potash shipments face delays before planting season.
- The Department of Justice recently opened an antitrust probe into fertilizer producers including Nutrien, while fertilizer and potash delays plus aluminum price jumps hit sectors just weeks before planting season.
- Canada's role as a major commodity supplier means American farmers faced higher costs and falling sales that prompted a U.S. bailout last year, highlighting U.S. industrial base dependence.
- The CUSMA review in July forces a three-way choice, and experts say political and market pressures may shift bargaining leverage, with trusted partners becoming more important, Inu Manak said.
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Eric Ham: Trump needs a win, and Canada’s CUSMA deal could be his lifeline
Washington political analyst Eric Ham argues that President Trump's military engagement in Iran—which has triggered job losses, plummeting approval ratings and the abandonment of U.S. allies—has paradoxically strengthened Canada's negotiating position heading into CUSMA talks this summer.
Price shocks from Iran war could give Canada leverage in CUSMA talks: experts
WASHINGTON - Countries around the world are grappling with skyrocketing costs for key commodities like oil and fertilizer as the war with Iran continues to upend global trade.
Canada is an alternative supplier for many raw materials. The post The war in Iran could have an impact on the negotiations of the ACEUM appeared first on Les Affaires.
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