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Two Runners so Far as Race for Áras Sparks Into Life

TASMANIA, AUSTRALIA, JUL 19 – The snap election follows a no-confidence vote amid concerns over a $10.8 billion debt forecast and ongoing political instability under a minority Liberal government, polls show another minority outcome.

  • Tasmania is holding a snap state election on Saturday following a no-confidence vote that toppled Premier Rockliff's minority Liberal government.
  • The snap election follows political turmoil including a failed rollout of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, a controversial stadium project, and worsening state finances.
  • Polling from YouGov and DemosAU shows the Liberals leading with about 31-35%, Labor close behind at 24-30%, independents around 20%, and Greens near 15-16%.
  • Polling analyst Dr Bonham indicated that unless Labor and the Greens choose not to collaborate, the Liberals may lose seats, and he anticipates the Greens securing six seats overall as a significant presence.
  • The election is likely to result in another hung parliament with no clear majority, implying ongoing political instability and reliance on crossbenchers.
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The Canberra Times broke the news in Canberra, Australia on Friday, July 18, 2025.
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