El Nino powers up as forecasters predict historic strength and a rainier winter for the US South
Forecasters said the event has an 81% chance of becoming very strong and could reduce Atlantic hurricane activity this season.
- On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Centre reported that El Niño will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, with an 81% chance of becoming a very strong event by October-December.
- Sea surface temperatures have spread 1.2°C above average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with the agency ranking the phenomenon among the largest events in the historical record going back to 1950.
- El Niño strengthens wind shear in the Caribbean, disrupting developing tropical storms during the six-month season that began June 1, prompting AccuWeather to reduce its Atlantic named-storm forecast to 8 to 14.
- Elsewhere, El Niño typically brings cooler, wetter winters to southern regions while increasing the risk of drought and wildfires in Australia, offering seasonal insight into weather extremes globally.
- There is a 97% chance El Niño will persist through early spring 2027, with only a 3% chance the Pacific will return to normal, signaling prolonged global weather volatility.
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NOAA Forecasters Now Calling Strong El Niño a Virtual Certainty
Federal scientists say a strong El Niño is now considered all but certain to develop this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center announced there is a 97 percent chance El Niño conditions will reach “strong” or “very strong” levels during the three-month period ending in December. Forecasters also say there is an 81 percent chance the event will become “very strong.” For California, that could bring …
The weather phenomenon of El Niño has gained strength over the past month and is likely to “be among the largest” ever recorded when it peaks between October and December, American forecasts said Thursday.
The El Niño weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean has gained strength in the last month and is very likely to "rank among the largest" ever recorded when it reaches its peak between October and December, the report noted.
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