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El Nino powers up as forecasters predict historic strength and a rainier winter for the US South

Forecasters say the event has an 81% chance of becoming very strong and could rank among the largest since 1950.

  • On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Centre reported that El Niño will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years, with an 81% chance of becoming a very strong event by October-December.
  • Sea surface temperatures have spread 1.2°C above average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with the agency ranking the phenomenon among the largest events in the historical record going back to 1950.
  • El Niño strengthens wind shear in the Caribbean, disrupting developing tropical storms during the six-month season that began June 1, prompting AccuWeather to reduce its Atlantic named-storm forecast to 8 to 14.
  • Elsewhere, El Niño typically brings cooler, wetter winters to southern regions while increasing the risk of drought and wildfires in Australia, offering seasonal insight into weather extremes globally.
  • There is a 97% chance El Niño will persist through early spring 2027, with only a 3% chance the Pacific will return to normal, signaling prolonged global weather volatility.
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Bias Distribution

  • 47% of the sources are Center
47% Center

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Winnipeg Free Press broke the news in Winnipeg, Canada on Thursday, July 9, 2026.
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