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Super El Niño poses critical threat to 500 million of the world’s farmers, researchers warn

NOAA said the event could become very strong, with a 63% chance it reaches the highest threshold by winter, forecasters said.

  • El Niño, a climate event that raises global temperatures, has begun and may be the strongest this century, with Pacific surface temperatures rising over 2 degrees Celsius according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration .
  • This year's El Niño could cause extreme droughts and heavy rainfall worldwide, disrupting agriculture in regions such as India, southern Africa, and the southern United States, threatening food security and livelihoods of 500 million smallholder farmers.
  • Potential global agricultural losses are estimated at $342 billion, with risks compounded by factors such as fertilizer shortages and geopolitical tensions.
  • Scientists warn that El Niño's interaction with climate change could intensify weather extremes, increasing risks of food crises and economic hardship for farming communities globally.
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The Independent broke the news in London, United Kingdom on Sunday, June 21, 2026.
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