El Niño is coming – but Southern African farmers can prepare rather than panic
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The expected intensification of El Niño could worsen the prospects for summer grain harvests in South Africa due to the risk of rainfall shortages during the new season. At the same time, the starting conditions remain better than during the severe drought of 2014-2016. After the favorable 2025/26 season, the country retains significant food reserves, so immediate risks of shortages are not expected. Food inflation in August 2026 was only [...] …
El Niño is here: should the production plan change?
For many South African grain producers, the 2026/27 summer season is already on paper. Hectares have been allocated, cultivars selected, input budgets compiled, and planting windows identified. The current El Niño event doesn’t automatically invalidate those decisions. It does, however, change the value of testing the assumptions behind them.
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