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El Niño has officially begun and threatens record global heat, US scientists say
Forecasters say there is a 63% chance the event reaches very strong levels by winter, raising the odds of global heat and extreme weather.
- On June 11, federal forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially declared that an El Niño event is underway in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, marking a long-anticipated global climate shift.
- An El Niño pattern emerges when tropical trade winds weaken, allowing warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures to build in the eastern Pacific; NOAA data shows current water temperatures averaging 0.7 degrees Celsius warmer than normal, signaling a weak event is currently underway.
- Climate Prediction Center forecasters anticipate this event will strengthen significantly by fall, with a 63% chance of becoming "very strong" during the upcoming winter; only seven such events exist in the record since 1950.
- While El Niño often brings wetter conditions to the Southeast and Southern California, it also poses risks including potential wildfire danger in Hawaii and prolonged drought across the Northwest, northern Plains, and Upper Midwest.
- Despite concerns, climate center researcher Michelle L'Heureux noted potential benefits including a likely reduction in Atlantic hurricane activity and lower heating bills for the northern United States, with this cycle providing six months of planning advance notice.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the onset of an El Niño on Thursday. It has been developing exceptionally rapidly this year, as evidenced by record-breaking temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Model predictions also suggest that the likelihood of a very strong or even record-breaking episode is increasing.
According to the American ocean watch, the natural climate phenomenon, synonymous with droughts, floods and record temperatures around the world, has settled well in the tropical Pacific. Experts estimate the risk of a very high episode between November and January at 63%.
·Paris, France
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Coverage Details
Total News Sources53
Leaning Left14Leaning Right5Center16Last UpdatedBias Distribution46% Center
Bias Distribution
- 46% of the sources are Center
46% Center
L 40%
C 46%
14%
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