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El Niño Coming; What It Mean For Summer Temps, Hurricane Season And Next Year?
NOAA gives a 62% chance of El Niño emerging this summer, with potential to become a strong or super event, impacting global temperatures and weather patterns.
- On Thursday, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño watch with a 62% chance it will emerge between June and August.
- The CPC expects a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral within the next month, while weakening trade winds will push warm equatorial Pacific water eastward.
- ECMWF ensemble runs suggest a 98% chance of a moderate event, an 80% chance of a strong event, and a 22% chance of a "super" El Niño by August, defined as at least 1.5°C above average.
- Forecasters say the U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast would likely see wetter conditions and higher flood risk, while El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation and a super El Niño could bring widespread weather extremes and record temperatures.
- Amid conflicting model runs, U.S. forecasters caution spring predictions are uncertain; NOAA projects a 1-in-3 chance of a super El Niño by October–December, with combined effects possibly pushing temperatures past the Paris Agreement threshold of 2.7°F.
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14 Articles
14 Articles
The European Centre for Weather Forecasts estimates a 22 per cent probability that the phenomenon will reach an extreme intensity with severe global impacts.
Coverage Details
Total News Sources14
Leaning Left6Leaning Right1Center3Last UpdatedBias Distribution60% Left
Bias Distribution
- 60% of the sources lean Left
60% Left
L 60%
C 30%
Factuality
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