Published • loading... • Updated
Economists have long pushed for prediction markets. The reality is not what they’d hoped for
Sports markets now account for 84% of Kalshi trading volume and 99% on Polymarket’s US-facing site, research firm TickerTracker said.
- Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly dominated by sports betting, significantly diverging from their original academic purpose of forecasting elections and economic events.
- The modern framework began in 1988 at an Iowa City restaurant called the Airliner, where three University of Iowa economists met to discuss forecasting elections and launched the Iowa Political Stock Market.
- Over the past month, TickerTracker data indicates sports-heavy parlays comprised about 84% of Kalshi's $18.5 billion volume and about 99% of Polymarket's $2.1 billion volume.
- University of Michigan professor Justin Wolfers argues these platforms facilitate compulsive gambling, citing a Federal Reserve study linking sports betting to increased credit delinquencies among younger people.
- Although some experts fear backlash could stifle innovation, others maintain prediction markets remain an "incredibly efficient" way to aggregate information, even if currently dominated by trivial bets.
Insights by Ground AI
11 Articles
11 Articles
Local 3 NewsReposted by 
KEZI 9 News
KEZI 9 NewsLong before the founders of Kalshi and Polymarket were born, a group of economists began to get excited about a new way of addressing one of humanity's greatest limitations: we are bad at predicting the future.
Economists have long pushed for prediction markets. The reality is not what they’d hoped for
Long before the founders of Kalshi and Polymarket were even born, a handful of economists were getting amped about a novel approach to dealing with one of humanity’s more egregious shortcomings: We’re bad at predicting the future.
·Atlanta, United States
Read Full ArticleCoverage Details
Total News Sources11
Leaning Left1Leaning Right2Center8Last UpdatedBias Distribution73% Center
Bias Distribution
- 73% of the sources are Center
73% Center
C 73%
R 18%
Factuality
To view factuality data please Upgrade to Premium
