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ECB Prepares First Interest Rate Hike After Iran’s War for Its Impact on Prices

Policymakers are expected to cite a 3.2% inflation rate in May and rising energy costs as they signal a short tightening cycle.

  • On Thursday, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, aiming to curb inflation currently exceeding the bank's 2% target in the 21-country currency bloc.
  • Surging energy costs triggered by the Iran war have prompted policymakers to manage inflation expectations, fearing the impact will spread broadly across the euro zone economy.
  • Several ECB watchers characterized the expected move as an "insurance hike," while President Christine Lagarde described it as a "measured adjustment" to address the inflation overshoot.
  • Chief Economist Philip Lane noted the Iran-related shock may have broader scope than the Ukraine crisis, while financial markets expect two additional rate increases over the next year.
  • Economists remain split on tighter policy due to weak economic growth, with senior economist Henry Cook at broker MUFG stating the ECB will "retain plenty of flexibility amid elevated uncertainty.
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Three major policy interest rates raised by 0.25 percentage points each… Deposit rate set to 2.25% "Middle East war causes inflationary pressure… stabilization expected only in the second half of next year" Inflation forecast raised from 2.6% to 3.0%, growth forecast lowered from 0.9% to 0.8% (Berlin=Yonhap News) Correspondent Kim Gye-yeon

Lean Left

In order to curb inflation at 3.2% in the euro area in May, the ECB announced that it would raise its rates by a quarter of a point on Thursday 11 June. While this increase is considered to be precipitated, the Frankfurt institution fears an inflationary spiral.

·Paris, France
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L'Opinion broke the news on Sunday, June 7, 2026.
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