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Hung Parliament Still Likely Outcome of Tasmanian Election, with Liberals Well Ahead of Labor in New Poll

TASMANIA, AUSTRALIA, JUL 14 – DemosAU poll shows Liberals lead with 34.9% but predicts no majority, indicating a hung parliament and strong independent vote of 20.3% ahead of Tasmania's July 19 election.

  • Tasmanians are voting in the state election this Saturday where Premier Jeremy Rockliff seeks to retain power against Labor leader Dean Winter.
  • Last month, an election was triggered after Winter brought forward a no-confidence motion, criticizing Rockliff's leadership over increasing debt, postponed ferry projects, and abandoned plans to privatize state assets.
  • Polling shows Liberals leading with 34.9% of the vote versus Labor's 24.7%, but analysts expect another hung parliament requiring crossbench negotiation mostly involving the Greens.
  • Rockliff states Liberals will not seek Greens’ support to govern, while Winter promises no deals with the Greens and pledges to resign if he fails to deliver 10 new bulk-billing GP clinics.
  • The expected outcome is another minority government highlighting Tasmanians’ demand for transparency, collaboration, and stable four-year parliamentary terms to avoid frequent elections.
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Bias Distribution

  • 78% of the sources lean Left
78% Left

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The Poll Bludger broke the news in on Monday, July 14, 2025.
Sources are mostly out of (0)